Overdose Forecast

Built for Sara Carter · Director, White House Office of National Drug Control Policy

Forecast where overdose surges are likely in the next two weeks from leading indicators — so resources move before the spike, not after.

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Allegheny Co., PA

aggregate region · pop ~1250k · 2-week forecast to ~Jul 10

Watch

Forward risk

band 44–48 · 94% conf

Top driver

ED visits

31% of the forecast

Data confidence

4/4 feeds

complete 100% · fit 97% · agree 76%

Leading indicators · last 6 weeks, projected +2w

EMS naloxone administrations

now 4/100k·wk · trend +0.16/wk · → 4.3 projected

May 22May 29Jun 5Jun 12Jun 19Jun 26+2w

range 0–4

pressure 36

×0.32 = 12

Test-strip positivity

now 38% · trend +1.60/wk · → 41.2 projected

May 22May 29Jun 5Jun 12Jun 19Jun 26+2w

range 0–41

pressure 48

×0.28 = 14

ED overdose visitsdriver

now 4.9/100k·wk · trend +0.50/wk · → 5.9 projected

May 22May 29Jun 5Jun 12Jun 19Jun 26+2w

range 0–6

pressure 66

×0.22 = 14

Recent suspected losses

now 0.7/100k·wk · trend +0.05/wk · → 0.8 projected

May 22May 29Jun 5Jun 12Jun 19Jun 26+2w

range 0–1

pressure 36

×0.18 = 6

How Allegheny Co.'s 46 is assembled

EMS naloxone  pressure  36 × eff.weight 0.32 = 12
Strip +       pressure  48 × eff.weight 0.28 = 14
ED visits     pressure  66 × eff.weight 0.22 = 14
Recent losses pressure  36 × eff.weight 0.18 = 6
forward risk = 46 → watch · confidence 94% → band ±2 (44–48)

Aggregate public-health indicators only — this region record holds no individual or person-level field of any kind. Forecast is a decision-support signal for pre-positioning, not a medical determination. Not medical advice.

Showcase demo for the America's Future 80th Anniversary Summit. Showcase · best home: Nonprofit / public-safety. Seeded with realistic sample data; runs payment-dark (no billing). Not a production system.