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Sara Carter

Overdose Forecast

Built for Sara Carter · Director, White House Office of National Drug Control Policy

Forecast where overdose surges are likely in the next two weeks from leading indicators — so resources move before the spike, not after.

✎ Tried it? Share pilot feedback →
50%
surge
4
regions · surge likely
2 on watch
Worst 2-week forecast
Cabell Co., WV
risk 96 · driven by EMS naloxone
88%
avg confidence
risk, ranked
Forward-looking, not rear-view. Each region's leading indicators are projected 2 weeks ahead (to ~Jul 10) and blended into one risk score with a confidence band, ranked worst-first so naloxone and outreach move before the spike. Aggregate only — no individual data exists in this system.
#1
96
risk /100
Cabell Co., WV⚑ Surge likely
Top driver: EMS naloxone (33% of risk)
band 94–98confidence 95%
May 22 → Jun 26 →↗
detail →
#2
85
risk /100
Kanawha Co., WV⚑ Surge likely
Top driver: EMS naloxone (32% of risk)
band 83–87confidence 95%
May 22 → Jun 26 →↗
detail →
#3
76
risk /100
Hamilton Co., OH⚑ Surge likely
Top driver: EMS naloxone (42% of risk)
band 74–78confidence 94%
May 22 → Jun 26 →↗
detail →
#4
67
risk /100
Bernalillo Co., NM⚑ Surge likely
Top driver: Strip + (61% of risk)
band 57–77confidence 67%⚠ 2 feed(s) offline — wider band
May 22 → Jun 26 →↗
detail →
#5
50
risk /100
Top driver: Strip + (33% of risk)
band 48–52confidence 95%
May 22 → Jun 26 →↗
detail →
#6
46
risk /100
Top driver: ED visits (31% of risk)
band 44–48confidence 94%
May 22 → Jun 26 →↗
detail →
#7
37
risk /100
Top driver: Strip + (37% of risk)
band 29–45confidence 72%
May 22 → Jun 26 →↗
detail →
#8
33
risk /100
Top driver: Strip + (38% of risk)
band 31–35confidence 95%
May 22 → Jun 26 →↗
detail →
Ranked by 2-week forward risk (ties broken by confidence). Pinning a region queues it for pre-positioning — the only thing stored, and it is just a region id. No person is ever represented.
Showcase demo for the America's Future 80th Anniversary Summit. Showcase · best home: Nonprofit / public-safety. Seeded with realistic sample data; runs payment-dark (no billing). Not a production system.