Overdose Forecast

Built for Sara Carter · Director, White House Office of National Drug Control Policy

Forecast where overdose surges are likely in the next two weeks from leading indicators — so resources move before the spike, not after.

✎ Tried it? Share pilot feedback →

← Forecast board

Cabell Co., WV

aggregate region · pop ~88k · 2-week forecast to ~Jul 10

⚑ Surge likely

Forward risk

band 94–98 · 95% conf

Top driver

EMS naloxone

33% of the forecast

Data confidence

4/4 feeds

complete 100% · fit 97% · agree 86%

Leading indicators · last 6 weeks, projected +2w

EMS naloxone administrationsdriver

now 10.6/100k·wk · trend +0.90/wk · → 12.4 projected

May 22May 29Jun 5Jun 12Jun 19Jun 26+2w

range 0–12

pressure 100

×0.32 = 32

Test-strip positivity

now 78% · trend +8.20/wk · → 94.4 projected

May 22May 29Jun 5Jun 12Jun 19Jun 26+2w

range 0–94

pressure 100

×0.28 = 28

ED overdose visits

now 6.5/100k·wk · trend +0.50/wk · → 7.5 projected

May 22May 29Jun 5Jun 12Jun 19Jun 26+2w

range 0–8

pressure 83

×0.22 = 18

Recent suspected losses

now 1.8/100k·wk · trend +0.18/wk · → 2.2 projected

May 22May 29Jun 5Jun 12Jun 19Jun 26+2w

range 0–2

pressure 98

×0.18 = 18

How Cabell Co.'s 96 is assembled

EMS naloxone  pressure 100 × eff.weight 0.32 = 32
Strip +       pressure 100 × eff.weight 0.28 = 28
ED visits     pressure  83 × eff.weight 0.22 = 18
Recent losses pressure  98 × eff.weight 0.18 = 18
forward risk = 96 → surge likely · confidence 95% → band ±2 (94–98)

Aggregate public-health indicators only — this region record holds no individual or person-level field of any kind. Forecast is a decision-support signal for pre-positioning, not a medical determination. Not medical advice.

Showcase demo for the America's Future 80th Anniversary Summit. Showcase · best home: Nonprofit / public-safety. Seeded with realistic sample data; runs payment-dark (no billing). Not a production system.