Overdose Forecast

Built for Sara Carter · Director, White House Office of National Drug Control Policy

Forecast where overdose surges are likely in the next two weeks from leading indicators — so resources move before the spike, not after.

✎ Tried it? Share pilot feedback →

← Forecast board

Cook Co., IL

aggregate region · pop ~5170k · 2-week forecast to ~Jul 10

Stable

Forward risk

band 29–45 · 72% conf

Top driver

Strip +

37% of the forecast

Data confidence

4/4 feeds

complete 100% · fit 17% · agree 83%

Leading indicators · last 6 weeks, projected +2w

EMS naloxone administrations

now 4.3/100k·wk · trend -0.01/wk · → 4.3 projected

May 22May 29Jun 5Jun 12Jun 19Jun 26+2w

range 0–5

pressure 36

×0.32 = 11

Test-strip positivitydriver

now 42% · trend -0.03/wk · → 41.9 projected

May 22May 29Jun 5Jun 12Jun 19Jun 26+2w

range 0–43

pressure 49

×0.28 = 14

ED overdose visits

now 3/100k·wk · trend -0.01/wk · → 3.0 projected

May 22May 29Jun 5Jun 12Jun 19Jun 26+2w

range 0–3

pressure 33

×0.22 = 7

Recent suspected losses

now 0.6/100k·wk · trend -0.02/wk · → 0.6 projected

May 22May 29Jun 5Jun 12Jun 19Jun 26+2w

range 0–1

pressure 25

×0.18 = 5

How Cook Co.'s 37 is assembled

EMS naloxone  pressure  36 × eff.weight 0.32 = 11
Strip +       pressure  49 × eff.weight 0.28 = 14
ED visits     pressure  33 × eff.weight 0.22 = 7
Recent losses pressure  25 × eff.weight 0.18 = 5
forward risk = 37 → stable · confidence 72% → band ±8 (29–45)

Aggregate public-health indicators only — this region record holds no individual or person-level field of any kind. Forecast is a decision-support signal for pre-positioning, not a medical determination. Not medical advice.

Showcase demo for the America's Future 80th Anniversary Summit. Showcase · best home: Nonprofit / public-safety. Seeded with realistic sample data; runs payment-dark (no billing). Not a production system.