Overdose Forecast

Built for Sara Carter · Director, White House Office of National Drug Control Policy

Forecast where overdose surges are likely in the next two weeks from leading indicators — so resources move before the spike, not after.

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Hamilton Co., OH

aggregate region · pop ~830k · 2-week forecast to ~Jul 10

⚑ Surge likely

Forward risk

band 74–78 · 94% conf

Top driver

EMS naloxone

42% of the forecast

Data confidence

4/4 feeds

complete 100% · fit 99% · agree 69%

Leading indicators · last 6 weeks, projected +2w

EMS naloxone administrationsdriver

now 10.8/100k·wk · trend +1.11/wk · → 13.0 projected

May 22May 29Jun 5Jun 12Jun 19Jun 26+2w

range 0–13

pressure 100

×0.32 = 32

Test-strip positivity

now 53% · trend +2.60/wk · → 58.2 projected

May 22May 29Jun 5Jun 12Jun 19Jun 26+2w

range 0–58

pressure 68

×0.28 = 19

ED overdose visits

now 5/100k·wk · trend +0.32/wk · → 5.6 projected

May 22May 29Jun 5Jun 12Jun 19Jun 26+2w

range 0–6

pressure 63

×0.22 = 14

Recent suspected losses

now 1.2/100k·wk · trend +0.10/wk · → 1.4 projected

May 22May 29Jun 5Jun 12Jun 19Jun 26+2w

range 0–1

pressure 64

×0.18 = 11

How Hamilton Co.'s 76 is assembled

EMS naloxone  pressure 100 × eff.weight 0.32 = 32
Strip +       pressure  68 × eff.weight 0.28 = 19
ED visits     pressure  63 × eff.weight 0.22 = 14
Recent losses pressure  64 × eff.weight 0.18 = 11
forward risk = 76 → surge likely · confidence 94% → band ±2 (74–78)

Aggregate public-health indicators only — this region record holds no individual or person-level field of any kind. Forecast is a decision-support signal for pre-positioning, not a medical determination. Not medical advice.

Showcase demo for the America's Future 80th Anniversary Summit. Showcase · best home: Nonprofit / public-safety. Seeded with realistic sample data; runs payment-dark (no billing). Not a production system.