Overdose Forecast

Built for Sara Carter · Director, White House Office of National Drug Control Policy

Forecast where overdose surges are likely in the next two weeks from leading indicators — so resources move before the spike, not after.

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Kanawha Co., WV

aggregate region · pop ~178k · 2-week forecast to ~Jul 10

⚑ Surge likely

Forward risk

band 83–87 · 95% conf

Top driver

EMS naloxone

32% of the forecast

Data confidence

4/4 feeds

complete 100% · fit 99% · agree 75%

Leading indicators · last 6 weeks, projected +2w

EMS naloxone administrationsdriver

now 8.6/100k·wk · trend +0.72/wk · → 10.0 projected

May 22May 29Jun 5Jun 12Jun 19Jun 26+2w

range 0–10

pressure 84

×0.32 = 27

Test-strip positivity

now 68% · trend +4.86/wk · → 77.7 projected

May 22May 29Jun 5Jun 12Jun 19Jun 26+2w

range 0–78

pressure 91

×0.28 = 26

ED overdose visits

now 5.1/100k·wk · trend +0.42/wk · → 5.9 projected

May 22May 29Jun 5Jun 12Jun 19Jun 26+2w

range 0–6

pressure 66

×0.22 = 15

Recent suspected losses

now 1.9/100k·wk · trend +0.19/wk · → 2.3 projected

May 22May 29Jun 5Jun 12Jun 19Jun 26+2w

range 0–2

pressure 100

×0.18 = 18

How Kanawha Co.'s 85 is assembled

EMS naloxone  pressure  84 × eff.weight 0.32 = 27
Strip +       pressure  91 × eff.weight 0.28 = 26
ED visits     pressure  66 × eff.weight 0.22 = 15
Recent losses pressure 100 × eff.weight 0.18 = 18
forward risk = 85 → surge likely · confidence 95% → band ±2 (83–87)

Aggregate public-health indicators only — this region record holds no individual or person-level field of any kind. Forecast is a decision-support signal for pre-positioning, not a medical determination. Not medical advice.

Showcase demo for the America's Future 80th Anniversary Summit. Showcase · best home: Nonprofit / public-safety. Seeded with realistic sample data; runs payment-dark (no billing). Not a production system.