Overdose Forecast

Built for Sara Carter · Director, White House Office of National Drug Control Policy

Forecast where overdose surges are likely in the next two weeks from leading indicators — so resources move before the spike, not after.

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King Co., WA

aggregate region · pop ~2270k · 2-week forecast to ~Jul 10

Stable

Forward risk

band 31–35 · 95% conf

Top driver

Strip +

38% of the forecast

Data confidence

4/4 feeds

complete 100% · fit 99% · agree 85%

Leading indicators · last 6 weeks, projected +2w

EMS naloxone administrations

now 4.6/100k·wk · trend -0.55/wk · → 3.5 projected

May 22May 29Jun 5Jun 12Jun 19Jun 26+2w

range 0–7

pressure 29

×0.32 = 9

Test-strip positivitydriver

now 44% · trend -2.94/wk · → 38.1 projected

May 22May 29Jun 5Jun 12Jun 19Jun 26+2w

range 0–58

pressure 45

×0.28 = 13

ED overdose visits

now 3.1/100k·wk · trend -0.36/wk · → 2.4 projected

May 22May 29Jun 5Jun 12Jun 19Jun 26+2w

range 0–5

pressure 27

×0.22 = 6

Recent suspected losses

now 0.8/100k·wk · trend -0.10/wk · → 0.6 projected

May 22May 29Jun 5Jun 12Jun 19Jun 26+2w

range 0–1

pressure 27

×0.18 = 5

How King Co.'s 33 is assembled

EMS naloxone  pressure  29 × eff.weight 0.32 = 9
Strip +       pressure  45 × eff.weight 0.28 = 13
ED visits     pressure  27 × eff.weight 0.22 = 6
Recent losses pressure  27 × eff.weight 0.18 = 5
forward risk = 33 → stable · confidence 95% → band ±2 (31–35)

Aggregate public-health indicators only — this region record holds no individual or person-level field of any kind. Forecast is a decision-support signal for pre-positioning, not a medical determination. Not medical advice.

Showcase demo for the America's Future 80th Anniversary Summit. Showcase · best home: Nonprofit / public-safety. Seeded with realistic sample data; runs payment-dark (no billing). Not a production system.