Overdose Forecast

Built for Sara Carter · Director, White House Office of National Drug Control Policy

Forecast where overdose surges are likely in the next two weeks from leading indicators — so resources move before the spike, not after.

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Marion Co., IN

aggregate region · pop ~977k · 2-week forecast to ~Jul 10

Watch

Forward risk

band 48–52 · 95% conf

Top driver

Strip +

33% of the forecast

Data confidence

4/4 feeds

complete 100% · fit 96% · agree 89%

Leading indicators · last 6 weeks, projected +2w

EMS naloxone administrations

now 5.3/100k·wk · trend +0.26/wk · → 5.8 projected

May 22May 29Jun 5Jun 12Jun 19Jun 26+2w

range 0–6

pressure 49

×0.32 = 16

Test-strip positivitydriver

now 45% · trend +2.23/wk · → 49.5 projected

May 22May 29Jun 5Jun 12Jun 19Jun 26+2w

range 0–49

pressure 58

×0.28 = 16

ED overdose visits

now 3.6/100k·wk · trend +0.16/wk · → 3.9 projected

May 22May 29Jun 5Jun 12Jun 19Jun 26+2w

range 0–4

pressure 44

×0.22 = 10

Recent suspected losses

now 0.9/100k·wk · trend +0.06/wk · → 1.0 projected

May 22May 29Jun 5Jun 12Jun 19Jun 26+2w

range 0–1

pressure 46

×0.18 = 8

How Marion Co.'s 50 is assembled

EMS naloxone  pressure  49 × eff.weight 0.32 = 16
Strip +       pressure  58 × eff.weight 0.28 = 16
ED visits     pressure  44 × eff.weight 0.22 = 10
Recent losses pressure  46 × eff.weight 0.18 = 8
forward risk = 50 → watch · confidence 95% → band ±2 (48–52)

Aggregate public-health indicators only — this region record holds no individual or person-level field of any kind. Forecast is a decision-support signal for pre-positioning, not a medical determination. Not medical advice.

Showcase demo for the America's Future 80th Anniversary Summit. Showcase · best home: Nonprofit / public-safety. Seeded with realistic sample data; runs payment-dark (no billing). Not a production system.